The batting average prop specifies that a batter needs to win the AL/NL batting title and hit for the over so in this case the numbers in brackets of the over column specify where 1 or 2 batting title winners also hit the over. The batting average in 2009 saw a high of .365 from Joe Mauer who won the AL batting title but the projections are that Mauer will revert more towards the mean this season as the models predict .329, .332 and .336 but all three making him the leader. Using the - hopefully correct - assumption that batting averages are normally distributed then hitting the over will most likely assume that Mauer, Ichiro Suzuki (predictions of .327, .311, .335; lifetime average of .353), Albert Pujols (.323, ,321, .331; .334), Hanley Ramirez (.321, .325, .324; .316) or rookie Pablo Sandoval (.327, .323, .323; .333) will experience some positive variation this year. Or maybe even Miguel Cabrera if he can stay off the bottle.
One interesting projection to note is that the Fan model has Jason Varitek pushing up the pile and set for a .220 average between the three estimates. Varitek, in probably the last year of his tenure at the Boston Red Sox, will only be a spot starter as a catcher with the major playing time going to Victor Martinez. However, expect him to be catching or pinch hitting in situations where the switch hitting Varitek has an offensive edge; he is a career .247 batting against RHP from the left side but .283 batting against RHP from the left side. However, I don't think I'm going to see that prop offered anytime soon.
Next up is the hit total O/U 218.5 where the prices haven't moved in the past month. Or, in other words, the Ichiro prop bearing in mind he has been the MLB leading hitter for the past 5 seasons and was the only person to hit over 218.5 in 4 out of 5 of those years. When you look at the players who generally bat for average you can drop Mauer (who only averages 132 games a season), Pablo Sandoval (who won't get enough at bats considering the dire San Francisco offense) – it's all on Ichiro here and if he plays a full season he can expect to clinch the over hitting around .319. However he missed more games last season (16) than he missed in his first eight seasons (15) and if he did the same in 2010 he would need to hit .342 to hit the over.
Finally we have stolen bases where betting under the 2010 line was a winner 6 out of the last 10 years although it was smashed last year by Jacoby Ellsbury who stole 70. With stolen bases, generally nobody managing the over in the last 10 years has come out of nowhere – that is, they've never hit over 65.5 without managing at least 40 the previous year. The only exception is Willy Tavaras, who stole 68 bases in 2008 but we can explain that as the exception to the rule. He managed that level of steals despite a batting average of only .251, a MLB low .296 slugging percentage and a defense not much better at a MLB low for a center fielder at .976. Ellsbury stole more last year (with a 33.7% chance of stealing when on base) as opposed to last year (30.0%) but was assisted by a higher OBP (.355 Vs .336 in 2008) and stealing with 85% success in 2009 rather than 82% in 2008 which was his first full season. Playing left field in 2010 rather than center will only assist his base running and keeping him healthy in 2010.
Betting Forum & Sportsbook Review
Carl Crawford managed 60 steals in 2009 which was a career high over his 8 seasons in the majors; however also having a career high in walks, a second best in AVG and a high in OBP indicates that getting to first base, and thus his steals, will most likely revert more to the mean in 2010. Aside from Ellsbury the other likely candidate is Houston's 28 year old Michael Bourne who stole 61 bases last year over 606 at bats, a little upside and more action at the plate for the center fielder could also clinch the over.
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