MLB Props: Part 1

The pitchers and catchers have started to report for Spring Training this year so it's a good time to look over the 2010 MLB futures, first up we'll examine the hitting statistics since Pinnacle have a number of lines up.

The data in the table shows how that line would have fared over the past 10 seasons. Using the home run column as an example, If there's an entry in the O column then that season went over the 2010 line (O/U 47.5) and the number represents the actual number of homers that year; the number in brackets gives the number of players who managed to hit over 47.5 in that particular year. If there's an entry in the U column then that season didn't go over 47.5 and the number represents the high for that year. As we all know, the more recent data is a more reliable indicator for 2010 since the steroid era did distort the early figures in many baseball categories no matter how much Mark McGuire might deny it. There are two sets of Pinnacle prices, the bottom set taken today and the top set taken from a month ago for comparison. For all of the MLB props, which I'm splitting into 5 parts, we're using the projections from three models. First we have the Marcel Model by Tom Tango, the CHONE Model by Sean Smith which both use weighted regression techniques and finally the Fan Model which is an aggregated list of ballots submitted by users of fangraphs.com using wisdom of crowds methodology.







For part 1, we're going to look at the first set of batting props and initially we have the home run prop set at O/U 47.5 which has moved under from -160 to -145 in the past month. 2009 was only the second time in 10 years that the total didn't go over 47.5 with Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder managing 47, 46 and 45 respectively. The model consensus is screaming for the under despite the usual suspects taking the top 3 places again with Howard forecasted at 39 from Marcel, 44 from CHONE and 45 from the Fans. Fielder lags just behind in all three models (37, 41, 43) while the projections seem to predict Pujols (34, 39, 42) suffering from old age despite only turning 30 in January.

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The RBI total of 144.5 mirrors the pattern of the HR total where only 2009 and one other year went under. The two regression models have this prop going way under with a high of 119 from Marcel and 131 from CHONE (both by Ryan Howard) – in fact the models only predict 5 and 8 players respectively hitting over 100+ RBIs. Even though you'd expect the Fans to overstate offensive power, they only predict a high of 139 from Pujols despite predicting 46 players hitting 100+.