The saves prop (unlike the strikeout prop) is similar to pitching props like wins (or especially losses) since the numbers of saves are not generally tied to the quality of the pitcher but rather the specific performance of the team. Looking at Pinnacle the save line is set at 47.5 and the over would have cashed in the last two seasons, both by the Los Angeles Angels although by different pitchers. In 2008, it was smashed by Francisco Rodriguez with 62 and last year nudged over courtesy of Brian Fuentes with 48. Despite Rodriguez beating the single season save total, he sported a WHIP of 1.29 (compare that to the 1.01 career WHIP of Mariano Rivera or the 1.04 of Trevor Hoffman) so it wasn't really the finest closing performance in history. With Fuentes in 2009, his ERA was just under 4 with a WHIP of 1.4 and he managed to hit 5 batters. It's almost as if there are other factors in hitting the over, which of course there are.
For two years, Angels pitchers got the most saves because they had the most opportunities – most full time closers are going to pitch in 65-75 games, but the important aspect is the number of save opportunities where the Angels have had the highest in the last 2 years. Although the level of save opportunities is correlated with the number of wins (a correlation of 0.586 in 2009) there is a sweet spot/range of X wins to maximize them; the more wins you get over X, the less opportunities you have since there will be more times the closer enters in non save situations. Conversely, the more you move under X, there will be less times the closer has a chance to save. In the table, we can see the predictions of team wins and saves for 2010 from Bill James along with 2009 data.
Although Rivera is predicted to have the same number of saves in 2010 as he did in 2009, it should be noted that the Yankees are also predicted 14 less wins which should mean he gets a higher % of save opportunities for games started which is a good bet for the over considering his conversion rate in save situations. Papelbon and Nathan are also decent outside chances if the former can get more opportunities and the latter can improve his conversion rate. Sadly for Fuentes his poor conversion rate, his control issues and the predicted slump in Angels wins suggest that he's going to be out of the running in 2010.
Betting Forum & Sportsbook Review
There's not a lot of space left for the other prop, but it appears to be a pretty simple affair – O/U 259.5. The predictions seem to make the prop whether Tim Lincecum can hit the over with his projected 261 strikeouts, matching his 2009 number, leading the pack by a large margin. Although he played only 32 games last year, 2 less than in 2008, he only pitched two less innings than the year before. However, it should be noted that his K/9 dropped from 10.51 to 10.42 and also has lost a couple of MPH from his fastball since his first season. There is a general rule of thumb for rookie pitches that they shouldn't pitch 30 innings more than the previous year or else there will be a drop off in the subsequent year, in 2008 Lincecum threw 49 2/3 more than in 2007. In his case the drop off might come this season but with 2 Cy Young awards under his belt, he isn't any ordinary rookie pitcher.
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